Decarbonization-curve to zero carbon society

We have to reconsider per capita per annum (PCPA) statistics on carbon emission.

While PCPA carbon emission on a nation's basis is a good indicator for inter-nation comparison, a more focused indicator is needed when we actually want implement measures to reduce carbon emission.

How can a possible “decarbonization to zero carbon”-curve look like? I use a quite simple curve, easy to remember:

In summary, targets are

2020: 20 t PCPA CO₂ emission

2030: 10 t PCPA CO₂ emission

2040: 1 t PCPA CO₂ emission

2050: zero carbon society

The curve is based on the following rational:

A) Shape of the curve?

The curve starts-off flat, since transformation always has some inertia associated to it.

As soon as transformation is well underway, decarbonization has become mainstream and the process of creativity and innovation is speeding up decarbonization and carbon substitutions.

B) What “societies” are we looking at?

Assume we are business consultants helping societies in achieving zero carbon.

I think it is reasonable that we spot those “societies” with highest PCPA carbon emissions.

The 25 t PCPA carbon emission in 2010 can be considered as the baseline. Some “societies” have higher, some have lower emissions, and the decarbonization curve must be adjusted in consequence. Still we want to achieve zero carbon in 2050.

We have not answered yet what these “societies” are and what carbon they produce?

- global businesses with high carbon outputs (e.g. per employee per annum)

- air, naval and road transportation (e.g. carbon per unit weight of products)

- car fleet and private cars (e.g. carbon per vehicle per km)

- and many more, a large pool of business and job opportunities!

We therefore have to define systems/societies or subsystems/subsocieties (e.g. companies and employees, cities and citizens, consumers), identify the PCPA carbon emission and support them in their transformation to zero carbon societies.

Why not use scenarios in setting up the decarbonization curve? This is exactly what we do, in referring to the IPCC scenarios and global annual average temperatures forecasts. We use the IPCC scenarios as input, to set our targets to achieve a zero carbon society in 2050.

Now it is up to all of us to sit together and come up with the smartest solutions, as industry leaders and champions, business consultants, responsible citizens and consumers, to tightly stick and follow to the “decarbonization curve” with the overall goal:

ZERO CARBON SOCIETY IN THE YEAR 2050